{"schema_version":1,"citation_url":"https://567business.com/news/jobless-claims-lowest-since-1969","title":"Layoffs just matched a 57-year low. Prices rose 0.4% again, and Fed officials want a December hike","description":"Jobless claims tied the lowest level since 1969, but October CPI beat forecasts for a third hot month, and Waller and Logan are now openly pushing rate hikes.","author":"Patrick Karsh","publisher":"567 Business","date_published":"2026-11-10T21:28:51.673923Z","date_modified":"2026-11-10T21:29:20.69655Z","body_markdown":"Hardly anyone in America is getting laid off, and prices keep climbing anyway. New jobless claims fell to 189,000 in the week ended October 31, matching the lowest level since 1969, the Labor Department said last Thursday, per [Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-weekly-jobless-claims-at-57year-lows-amid-low-layoffs-5004323). Then on Tuesday the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than expected, [CNBC reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/cpi-inflation-report-october-2026.html). Within hours, Federal Reserve officials were openly talking about raising interest rates in December, and markets priced it in.\n\nFor households, that is a bad mix. A tight job market keeps paychecks coming. But prices that rise this fast eat those paychecks, and higher rates make mortgages, car loans and credit card balances cost more.\n\n## Prices: the third hot month in a row\n\nThe consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in October after 0.6% in September. It was the third straight monthly gain of 0.4% or more, [Reuters reported](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/wall-st-ends-lower-as-hot-inflation-data-fed-comments-heighten-rate-worries-ce785edad18ef422). Core prices, which strip out food and energy, rose 0.3%, also above forecasts.\n\n```chart\ntype: bar\ntitle: Price change by category, October 2026\nnote: Month over month, seasonally adjusted, US city average (CPI-U)\nsuffix: %\nsource: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/cpi-inflation-report-october-2026.html) citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics\n---\nCategory | Change\nGasoline | 1.0\nBeef | 0.9\nElectricity | 0.9\nEnergy | 0.7\nFood | 0.5\nAll items | 0.4\nCore (no food, energy) | 0.3\nShelter | 0.3\nUsed cars and trucks | -1.2\n```\n\nThe grocery bill is where many people will feel it. Food prices rose 0.5% in the month, driven by a 1% jump for snacks and 0.9% for beef. Shelter rose 0.3% and made up more than 30% of the overall increase, the BLS said. Energy rose 0.7% and gasoline rose 1%, a sharp slowdown from September, when gasoline jumped 9.1%. Electricity rose 0.9%, which CNBC flagged as a possible side effect of the AI data center buildout.\n\nOne number is missing. The BLS did not publish a yearly inflation rate. It could not collect data in October 2025 because of the government shutdown, so there is no year-ago figure to compare against, per [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/cpi-inflation-report-october-2026.html). That makes the monthly numbers the main guide for now.\n\n## Jobs: almost no one is being let go\n\nThe labor market tells the opposite story. Initial claims fell 6,000 to 189,000, below the 196,000 economists expected. Claims have stayed mostly under 200,000 since mid-September, [Reuters reported](https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-weekly-jobless-claims-at-57year-lows-amid-low-layoffs-5004323).\n\n| Measure | Latest | Week ended |\n| --- | ---: | --- |\n| Initial claims | 189,000 | Oct 31 |\n| Four-week average | 194,750 | Oct 31 |\n| Continuing claims | 1.718 million | Oct 24 |\n\nSource: Labor Department data via [Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-weekly-jobless-claims-at-57year-lows-amid-low-layoffs-5004323) and [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?eid=258888&rid=180).\n\nThe White House seized on the number. The official account of Vice President JD Vance shared a news excerpt saying claims had tied \"the lowest level of claims since 1969.\"\n\nhttps://x.com/VP/status/2118376300255617386\n\nThere are two caveats. First, some economists say claims are low partly because the labor force is smaller after the immigration crackdown, not only because firms are holding on to workers, Reuters noted. Second, low layoffs are not the same as easy hiring. Continuing claims, a rough gauge of how hard it is to find a new job, rose 23,000 in the latest week. Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 43,994 announced job cuts in October, the lowest for any October since 2023, and its chief revenue officer Andy Challenger said much of the hiring being announced is short-term seasonal work, Reuters reported. And big employers are still cutting. Our roundup of [this month's layoffs at Boeing, PepsiCo, Canva and Qualcomm](/news/layoffs-boeing-pepsico-canva-qualcomm-november-2026) shows where the pain is.\n\n## The Fed: a December hike is now the base case\n\nStrong jobs plus hot prices is the recipe for higher rates, and Fed officials said so on Tuesday. Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed should raise rates in December even if inflation had cooled, and should consider a half-point move if it got worse, [Reuters reported](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/wall-st-ends-lower-as-hot-inflation-data-fed-comments-heighten-rate-worries-ce785edad18ef422). Before the data, he had said a hike should be on the table if core CPI was \"around 0.3,\" per [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/cpi-inflation-report-october-2026.html). Core came in at exactly 0.3%.\n\nOthers joined in. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed needs at least two more quarter-point increases. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid called current policy \"fairly accommodative.\" Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman stopped short of calling for a hike but said inflation is the top priority.\n\nThe Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% at its October meeting, per CNBC. Markets now fully price at least a quarter-point hike at the December 8-9 meeting, up from 84% odds on Monday. Odds of a half-point move rose to 11.8% from zero, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped nearly 0.2 percentage points and was on track for its biggest daily gain since April 9, 2025.\n\nThe Bull Theory account, which has about 280,000 followers, captured the mood among traders in a widely shared post: inflation came in \"hotter than expected AGAIN,\" putting a half-point hike \"back in focus.\"\n\nhttps://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/2120153892847747567\n\n## Is the Fed overreacting?\n\nNot everyone thinks so much tightening is needed. Jason Ware of Albion Financial Group told Reuters the sell-off on the hike talk was \"irrational.\" He argued that oil, energy and diesel drove the recent inflation, and that with oil now falling, \"this is all going to settle down.\" Brent crude fell below $93 a barrel on Monday after President Trump said he was unlikely to order new strikes on Iran.\n\nThe Fed's worry is that inflation is spreading beyond fuel. Food, shelter and transportation services all rose in October, and Fed officials fear the effects of the Iran war and tariffs are becoming embedded in the economy, CNBC reported. Inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target for about five and a half years. Businesses are not done raising prices, either: a net 37% of firms in the October National Federation of Independent Business survey said they plan to raise prices in the next three months, the most since July 2022.\n\n## The bottom line\n\nThe next big dates are Thursday's jobless claims, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge later this month, and the Fed's meeting on December 8 and 9. If layoffs stay this low and prices keep rising 0.3% to 0.4% a month, a rate hike looks very likely. Stocks have already felt it, as our [markets story](/news/sp500-rebound-best-day-since-april) explains.","link_base":"https://567business.com/news/jobless-claims-lowest-since-1969","citation_guidance":"Cite citation_url. Preserve source links, dates and qualifications. date_modified is an edit date, not proof that every claim was rechecked. Third-party images and quoted material retain their own rights."}