# If Lutnick tightens Nvidia's China rules, AMD and Broadcom gain first. China's chipmakers get a shield

Analysts name AMD, Broadcom and Alphabet as near-term winners from a crackdown, while Chinese AI stocks fell and local chip stocks rose on Nov. 13.

By 567 Business staff · 567 Business
Published: 2026-11-13T17:35:27.944924Z
Updated: 2026-11-13T17:35:27.944924Z
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If Washington tightens chip exports after the Nvidia scandal, the companies most likely to gain are not in China. Analysts point first to AMD, Broadcom and Alphabet, which sell rival AI chips to the same Western buyers. China's own chipmakers would get a more protected home market, but analysts doubt they can fill the gap soon.

The trigger is the fight over Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. His department sets the rules on which AI chips can reach China, and it faces bipartisan questions over why it never blacklisted Megaspeed, a Singapore Nvidia customer suspected of moving chips to China. Lutnick testifies to the Senate Banking Committee on Dec. 10. 567politics covers [what Congress wants to know](https://567politics.com/news/lutnick-senate-banking-testimony-nvidia-megaspeed-entity-list-november-2026).

## Nvidia's rivals see an opening

Nvidia supplied more than 60% of the world's AI computing power in the second quarter, more than double runner-up Alphabet, according to Epoch AI estimates cited by the [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/11/13/2003867638). AMD and Broadcom shares rose early on the day Nvidia fell on reports about Huang, the paper reported.

Mandeep Singh, global head of technology research at Bloomberg Intelligence, said AMD, Google's TPU chips and Amazon "will probably have a chance to improve their market share." He expects Nvidia's next chief to be "quite conservative." Anna Wu of Floodlines Research called AMD, Alphabet and Broadcom "natural beneficiaries in the short term."

The limits on that shift are real. Wu noted that TPUs cannot fully replace Nvidia's GPUs, and that moving AI workloads off Nvidia's software is slow and costly. Nvidia's [August results](https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx) showed data center revenue of $89 billion in one quarter, up 117% from a year earlier. A few points of share is a lot of money, but it is not a collapse.

AMD also shares Nvidia's China problem. Its MI325X falls under the same January rule that opened case-by-case China licenses for the H200, according to the [Commerce Department](https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china). In August 2025, both companies agreed to give the U.S. government 15% of revenue from some China chip sales, the Associated Press reported. Any freeze on China licenses would hit AMD's sales there as well.

## China's chipmakers get protection, not a quick win

Tighter U.S. rules would leave Chinese buyers with fewer options outside their own country. The Taipei Times names Cambricon Technologies, Hygon Information Technology and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. as possible winners. But Wu said it would be structurally hard for them to take Nvidia's share without a fix for making the most advanced chips.

Markets in China reflected that split on Nov. 13. Shares of AI model makers Z.AI and MiniMax and of data center suppliers Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink fell, while gains in domestic chip stocks left the main indexes little changed, according to [China Money Network](https://www.chinamoneynetwork.com/2026/11/13/china-ai-stocks-slide-as-nvidia-upheaval-revives-us-chip-fears). Chinese AI developers need chips. Chinese chipmakers gain if foreign chips get scarce.

Huawei shows how a company can adapt to U.S. limits over time. Its revenue fell from about $129 billion in 2020 to $95 billion in 2022 under U.S. sanctions, then recovered to about $123 billion in 2025, [Yahoo Finance reported](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/jensen-huangs-spy-scandal-may-cost-nvidia-the-china-chip-fight-it-was-winning-121310306.html).

```chart
type: line
title: Huawei clawed back most of the revenue it lost to U.S. sanctions
note: Annual revenue, billions of US dollars, approximate
prefix: $
suffix: B
source: [Yahoo Finance, Nov. 10, 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/jensen-huangs-spy-scandal-may-cost-nvidia-the-china-chip-fight-it-was-winning-121310306.html)
---
Year | Huawei revenue
2020 | 129
2022 | 95
2025 | 123
```

Analysts disagree on who comes out ahead. Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon said that if Huang left, "The only one that wins... probably is China." Isaac Stone Fish, founder of Strategy Risks, called the scandal "a net loss for China" and expects Commerce to enforce export rules more strictly.

## Who else is exposed

Not every supplier moves with Nvidia. The Taipei Times reports that Nvidia's manufacturing partners look largely insulated, because they also make chips for its rivals. Samsung could gain if new Nvidia management rethinks suppliers, said Jung In Yun of Fibonacci Asset Management Global. SK Hynix remains Nvidia's main supplier of high-bandwidth memory.

## What would change the picture

The direction depends on Washington more than on Nvidia's new chief. Commerce could list Megaspeed, finish a rule on Chinese remote access to chips in Asian data centers, or pause China licenses, as House Democrats asked on Nov. 9. Each step would help AMD and Broadcom only where Nvidia loses sales they can win; in China, the gains go to local makers.

Nvidia reports results on Nov. 17. Its forecast already assumes no China data center revenue, as we explain in [our look at what Lutnick's decisions mean for Nvidia](/news/lutnick-commerce-nvidia-china-exposure-megaspeed-what-investors-watch). For the market reaction so far, see [Nvidia's near-$500 billion two-day loss](/news/nvidia-500-billion-jensen-huang-probe).